Comply Or Die for the National! (Horse Racing in General)

Name: thedevilinme

Hello doyoo user, You have to be logged in to use these functions... Login or register Close window

Send message to member

Product:	Horse Racing in General
Date:	05/04/08 (112 review reads)
Rating:

Advantages: Great TV and race day event

Disadvantages: Rough Liverpool women

It used to be the cruelest horse race in the world, and very exciting because of that, the horse's welfare the last thing on race goer's and trainers minds, the glory of a national winner everything. Chasers have little stud value and few owners pay for them to sit around in stables once the prize money has stopped. If they don't race point-to-point its Le Big Mac time! But today the National is a proper race and few come to grief now, mainly because they are no longer old cart horses but athletic jumpers ready for the challenge. In the 70s and 80s you would regularly get a 50-1 winner, the race too capricious to be called serious racing, the brave and dumb, jockeys and horses, doing their best. But now the winner generally comes from the first five in the betting and if you back all those each way then you won't lose money if you back that bunch religiously in ten nationals in a row.

I have been to Aintree a couple of times and it's a great day out, although there are only so many tattoos you want to see on a working-class women when it's only ten degrees and the Irish Sea is blowing a beastie. It is very blue-collar crowd in Liverpool at the best of times and the more refined race fan will probably choose the earlier Cheltenham Festival to be seen and pampered. I've been to the Cheltenham Festival and would say 20,000 drunk 'shawaddywaddys' can be just as big an eyesore as the girls of Liverpool on ladies day.

The race course itself is woeful for access and even worse for getting out, a three hour minimum if you're on a coach trip. Once the bus wheels are spinning in the mud you may as well forget about arriving home for Match of the day. Have a good drink on the day and sleeping it off in the coach is the best idea-unless, of course, you're the designated driver. Park outside the course and walk in if you can.
It cost about £12-£15 ground admission when I last went and its £25 plus in the stands. But Aintree is unique in that its iconic fences have banked viewing points all away along the straights and so it's a great viewing race. Big screens have all the blind spots covered and there are four big ones in all the right blind-spots. The Melling Road banking is a good spot as you can see the start and the horses going the way around.

Who will win?

This is no Denman versus Quato Star guys, the horses older and not so wiser. I think it's fair to say expendable horses are the order of the day here, although the racing press always likes to talk up Grade A Cheltenham winners coming to Aintree one day to justify the races stature. At the end of the day they are the older horse and with no notable stud values you just need a good jumper with lots of stamina and luck to win here. It is well known that horses that have got around a couple of times eventually place. Place bets are great value at the National.

Top weight hasn't won for 30 years so don't bet Hedgehunter on the nose, even though its got around five times and placed for three of those, winning it once of course. Its defo worth a place bet. We also know French horses never win it, and the Irish horses don't do brilliant either at Aintree, Cheltenham where they like to be. The most important thing is that no horse outside 33-1 has won it since 1985 (Last Suspect 50-1), in those days more of a lottery. It's not so much a lottery these days though, most winners are 16-1 or less. Currently there are only 9 horses under 16-1 and so the more adventurous could bet all nine and still win. The winner has to come from these guys below for me as the ground is bang on for a class horses to win.

The fancied anti-post ones (by weight) under 16-1...

SIMON 12-1
MR POINTMENT 16-1
BUTLERS CABIN 16-1
SLIM PICKINGS 10-1
CHELSEAS HARBOUR 14-1
BEWLEYS BERRY 14-1
CLOUDY LANE 5-1
KING JOHNS CASTLE
COMPLY OR DIE 10-1

Cloudy Lane is hot hot favorite and could start tightest favorite since Red Rum, well ahead of the handicapper, which means he isn't carrying the extra weight he should be to make it fair. It's a useful advantage to have here. The horse has great form and will enjoy the ground, but he hasn't seen the fences before, a big negative. 5/1 is not generous, especially when it can get taken out by a lose horse. Slim Pickings at 10-1, Ireland's best hope, placed last year but didn't have enough to run on and challenge. May be worth a £2 each way. Comply or Die (very topical if you think what our Muslim brothers really think of us these days) is looking good at tens and one of my tips. Champion jockey McCoy rides Butlers Cabin, hoping for his first ever winner in the National. But he's just returned to the saddle from a horrific fall and may be weary of another one around Aintree and so not be brave enough, which you can't blame him. It's a 14 ft drop on the other side of The Chair if you get it wrong. But what a story it would be.

-Previous winners-

1985 Last Suspect 50/1
1986 West Tip 15/2
1987 Maori Venture 28/1
1988 Rhyme 'n' Reason 10/1
1989 Little Polveir 28/1
1990 Mr Frisk 16/1
1991 Seagram 12/1
1992 Party Politics 14/1
1993 race void
1994 Miinnehoma 16/1
1995 Royal Athlete 40/1
1996 Rough Quest 7/1 F
1997 Lord Gyllene 14/1
1998 Earth Summit 7/1 F
1999 Bobbyjo 10/1
2000 Papillon 10/1
2001 Red Marauder 33/1
2002 Bindaree 20/1
2003 Monty's Pass 16/1
2004 Amberleigh House 16/1
2005 Hedgehunter 7/1 F
2006 Numbersixvalverde 11/1
2007 Silver Birch 33/1

My Bets

Outside the top 10 or so in the betting I'm going to bet on Mckelvey, who finished second last year and so knows where the danger is and proved a real race, and at 25-1, good each-way action. Alongside that will be a fiver on the nose for Comply or Die. My third horse will be Dun Doire, a real stayer and excellent jumper, also 25-1 the place...

£5 to win Comply or Die
50p each-way on McKelvey
50p each-way on Dun Doire

-Links-

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/ot her_sports/horse_racing/7328788.stm

http://www.gr andnational.org.uk/

Summary: Cling on to those betting slips!